Forrester has introduced its AI Disruption Model to assess AI's impact on technology and service markets, revealing how advancements in AI are disrupting markets at an unprecedented pace — enhancing the value of certain products and services while making others increasingly vulnerable to replacement.
Applied to 17 technology and service categories comprising more than 200 technology and service markets, the model analyzes whether AI is likely to accelerate, disrupt, reshape, or have limited impact on individual markets. The model evaluates factors including AI substitutability, labor intensity, support for agentic workloads, commercial models, data and trust advantages, AI-focused R&D investment, regulatory friction, asset intensity, and switching costs.
Key findings show AI enablers are positioned for growth. Infrastructure providers including cloud platforms, data centers, and storage, data and AI providers including AI models, AI platforms, data management, and governance solutions, and cybersecurity and identity providers including Zero Trust and AI agent security are the only three markets expected to benefit as enterprises scale AI deployments from experimentation to enterprise-scale deployment of AI applications and autonomous agents.
In comparison, labor-intensive knowledge-work industries face the greatest disruption. Transformation services, technology implementation, software development, creative services, localization, and training markets will experience pressure as AI substitutes for activities traditionally performed by people, including coding, content creation, and translation.
Many enterprise software categories will be reshaped rather than displaced. Business applications, governance and compliance, process automation, customer experience, and marketing technology are expected to evolve as AI transforms workflows and user experiences. While these categories are vulnerable to disruption, embedded workflows, regulatory requirements, switching costs, and growing demand for data, orchestration, governance, and trust capabilities help sustain their relevance.
With AI widening the divide across tech products and services, the model helps leaders identify the markets most likely to accelerate, transform, or face disruption as organizations move toward autonomous agents.
"Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul," said Craig Le Clair, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. "Our research shows that AI's benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories — infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security — are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt."
Using the Forrester AI Disruption Model, tech leaders can anticipate the impact of AI on their portfolios and plan accordingly. By assessing which markets are likely to accelerate, transform, or face disruption, organizations can better prepare for the opportunities and risks ahead.
"The challenge for technology and service providers is not simply understanding where AI is advancing but how it will reshape the economics of their markets," said Ted Schadler, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. "Forrester's AI Disruption Model gives providers a practical framework to evaluate where AI is likely to accelerate their growth, transform their market dynamics, or replace existing sources of value. Providers can use the model to anticipate change and prioritize investments to thrive in the AI era."
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