The global economy is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026, according to Visa Business and Economic Insights' (VBEI) 2026 Midyear Global Economic Outlook. While higher energy prices are squeezing household budgets and creating fresh challenges, a surge in business investment—particularly in artificial intelligence, clean energy, and strategic industries—is helping offset the strain on consumers and keep the economy moving forward.
Global economy expected to grow 2.4% in 2026.
Business investment surge in AI, clean energy, and strategic industries at levels not seen since 2010.
Digital commerce adoption in peripheral cities nearly doubled from 31% to 56% since pre-pandemic.
Consumers adjusting behavior and seeking deals rather than pulling back sharply.
Markets with higher online penetration seeing stronger competition and lower inflation.
Capital spending by U.S., EU, and China rising in tandem.
Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa, stated: "As digital commerce continues to reshape how people shop and pay, consumers are finding more ways to compare prices and stretch their budgets, helping to keep inflation in check. We're also seeing business investment rising sharply, with companies building out AI, clean energy and stronger supply chains at levels we haven't seen since 2010—a trend that is helping support global growth."
Visa economists describe the current consumer environment as "more like adjustment than collapse." Even as higher costs weigh on household budgets, discretionary spending is holding relatively steady, with tentative signs of firming—evidence that consumers are adapting their behavior and seeking deals rather than retreating.
In smaller, "peripheral" cities, online adoption has nearly doubled since before the pandemic—rising from about 31% to 56% across the nearly 600 cities VBEI analyzed. The trend spans markets as varied as Bern, Switzerland, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, where online shopping has climbed sharply since 2019. As more shoppers gain the power to compare prices and find alternatives, these markets are seeing stronger competition and lower inflation, helping ease the pressure on households as energy costs climb.
The global economy has entered its strongest industrial investment cycle since 2010. Capital spending by the world's three largest economies—the U.S., EU, and China—is rising in tandem as businesses race to build out AI capabilities, transition to cleaner energy sources, and secure strategic supply chains. This broad-based uptick in investment is helping carry the economy, creating jobs and supporting household spending through higher energy costs.
Consumer spending is adjusting but not collapsing. Digital commerce is helping contain prices by giving consumers more ways to find value and compare prices. A broad-based surge in business investment across AI, clean energy, and strategic supply chains is keeping global growth on track.
About Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI)
Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) provides data-driven analysis of global economic trends, consumer spending patterns and the evolution of digital commerce, drawing on proprietary VisaNet transaction data, economic modeling and third-party research. The team publishes regular research across macroeconomics, consumer behavior and payments innovation.
About Visa
Visa is a world leader in digital payments, facilitating transactions between consumers, sellers, financial institutions and government entities across more than 200 countries and territories. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, convenient, reliable and secure payments network, enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive.
