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Visa's 2026 Global Economic Outlook projects a seemingly steady global GDP growth of 2.7%, but reveals that profound structural transformation is underway beneath the surface. The analysis identifies artificial intelligence adoption, supply chain rewiring, and a shift toward business investment as the key forces fundamentally reshaping the global economy.
Visa forecasts global GDP growth of 2.7% for 2026, showing surface-level stability.
Underneath, the economy is being transformed by AI adoption and shifting trade patterns.
Business investment is accelerating, offsetting a moderate softening in consumer spending.
Supply chains are fragmenting, with two-thirds of trade growth now intra-regional.
Small businesses are adopting generative AI faster than consumers, boosting their transaction growth.
This shift creates a move from consumption-led to investment-led economic expansion.
Visa's outlook projects global GDP growth of 2.7% in 2026, a slight moderation from 2.9% in 2025. While headline figures suggest continuity, the report emphasizes that powerful structural forces are actively rewiring global commerce. These include the acceleration of generative AI, the fragmentation of supply chains (termed "geonomics"), and ongoing demographic pressures, all of which are rapidly changing the composition of economic growth beneath the surface stability.
A key shift is the transition from consumption-led to investment-led growth. Consumer spending remains resilient but is moderating, while business investment accelerates, driven by AI infrastructure buildout and declining policy uncertainty. Simultaneously, global trade patterns are fragmenting in response to tariffs and de-risking mandates. Intra-regional trade now drives two-thirds of global trade growth as companies shorten supply chains and broaden supplier bases, a trend fueling business travel and cross-border commercial payments.
Notably, small businesses are now adopting generative AI at a faster rate than consumers. Firms that integrate AI are showing significantly higher transaction growth, as the technology enables lean teams to achieve scale previously requiring larger workforces. While North American tech hubs lead in absolute adoption, faster growth rates abroad suggest the next wave of AI-driven business models may emerge globally. This adoption is redefining competitive dynamics and what it means to be a "small business."
The baseline forecast reflects a balance between these resilient growth drivers—stable consumption, rising investment, and AI adoption—and ongoing challenges like policy uncertainty and demographics. As Visa Chief Economist Wayne Best notes, organizations combining timely insights with operational agility will be best positioned to navigate this evolving landscape and capitalize on the new growth drivers.
About the Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook
The Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook provides broad analysis of global economic trends, regional forecasts and sector-specific insights based on proprietary Visa transaction data, economic modeling, and analysis of emerging trends. The report includes detailed projections for consumer spending, business investment, inflation, and trade patterns across major economies.
About Visa
Visa is a world leader in digital payments, facilitating transactions between consumers, sellers, financial institutions and government entities across more than 200 countries and territories. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, convenient, reliable and secure payments network, enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. We believe that economies that include everyone everywhere, uplift everyone everywhere and see access as foundational to the future of money movement.
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