Private companies and governments have invested a staggering $17 trillion in sustainable technologies over the past decade, yet progress has been uneven, according to Bain & Company's 4th edition of the Visionary CEO's Guide to Sustainability. The report finds that sustainability transitions have entered an age of divergence which could intensify over the next decade.
Bain's Green Technology Performance Index compares actual 2025 deployment with forecasts made ten years ago across 37 sustainable technologies. Only three technologies – solar, batteries, and EVs – have outperformed forecasts, while 29 missed their projections. Those that underperformed did so because one or more of three critical "gates" – technology, behavior, or policy – didn't open.
"Ten years into the Paris Agreement, the world has made commendable sustainability achievements, but this summer's record-breaking heat is a reminder that we need to do more," said Jean-Charles van den Branden, Bain's global head of Sustainability. "Today's CEO must recognize this age of divergence for what it is: not a sign of failure, but an opportunity to place the right bets for the future."
Investments in sustainability hit a record $2.4 trillion in 2025. However, 90% of investment went to just three sectors where capital helped technologies scale and costs fall, in turn attracting further investments. Meanwhile, three stranded sectors which together account for roughly 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, received less than 10% of investment.
For the first time in three years, environmental concern is on the rise. This year, 85% of 7,500 consumers across US, UK, Italy, Brazil and Indonesia surveyed by Bain say they are concerned about environmental sustainability, up from 79% last year. Adoption of sustainable habits continues to increase year-over-year. 83% have adopted three or more sustainable lifestyle habits, up from 73% in 2023. Even among consumers who say they do not care about sustainability, nearly half now practice three or more habits.
Consumers are willing to pay 18% more for a sustainable product on average, rising to 24% when it also offers a health benefit. More than half also say they shop locally more than before, primarily to support local businesses.
One of the largest perception gaps concerns AI energy impact. Executives expect AI to consume around 11% of global energy three years from now, while consumers expect 19%. Bain's proprietary IntersectSM model forecasts much smaller share: 0.7%. Nearly two-thirds of consumers report taking concrete action due to concerns about AI, such as limiting what they share or switching platforms.
Among shapers – companies with highest AI and sustainability maturity – 90% see AI as major opportunity to advance sustainability goals. Among laggards, figure has fallen to 41% from 57% last year.
