Serious mortgage delinquency rates (60+ days past due) remain historically low but have steadily increased from 0.89% in Q2 2023 to 1.14% in Q2 2024 and 1.27% in Q2 2025. A new analysis by TransUnion highlights a strong correlation between payment-to-income (PTI) ratios and rising mortgage delinquencies, offering lenders new insights into early detection of financial stress.
Quick Intel
U.S. mortgage delinquencies rose from 0.89% (Q2 2023) to 1.27% (Q2 2025).
TransUnion study shows PTI ratios strongly predict future delinquency risk.
Credit cards, HELOCs, and student loans all showed PTI increases tied to mortgage strain.
Cross-wallet credit monitoring on a quarterly basis recommended for lenders.
Trended credit data provides earlier insights vs. traditional credit scores.
Tools like TruVision help lenders identify risks and engage at-risk borrowers proactively.
The 2024 analysis examined nearly 57 million mortgage consumers who were current on their loans at the time of study. Results revealed a direct correlation between rising PTI ratios on non-mortgage debt (e.g., credit cards, HELOCs, student loans) and increased risk of mortgage delinquency in the following year.
Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion, explained:
“The study clearly demonstrates that an increase in payment-to-income ratios for select non-mortgage credit products serves as a strong and reliable signal that these borrowers are significantly more likely to experience mortgage delinquency in the future. Moreover, evolving patterns in credit card usage may provide additional early indicators of emerging financial stress, offering valuable insights for lenders.”
The study reinforces the importance of cross-wallet credit data collection on a consistent schedule—ideally quarterly. This trended data offers a more complete historical perspective, revealing consumer patterns and stress signals earlier than traditional credit scores.
Satyan Merchant, senior vice president and auto and mortgage business leader at TransUnion, noted:
“In this challenging economic environment, lenders must leverage every available tool at their disposal to more effectively segment and manage risk. Trended credit data can play a critical role in identifying shifts in key attributes such as aggregate excess payment, non-mortgage delinquencies, and debt-to-income ratios. These innovative insights can help pinpoint consumers who are at a higher likelihood of becoming delinquent and, importantly, enable lenders to proactively contact and work with consumers at heightened risk of default to help them stay on track and avoid falling behind on payments.”
TransUnion highlighted its TruVision for Managing Customer Portfolios, a platform designed to deliver deep behavioral insights into consumer credit activity. By leveraging these tools, lenders can identify at-risk borrowers, predict future actions, and proactively intervene—helping mitigate rising delinquency trends and minimizing portfolio losses.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world. www.transunion.com/business
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