CyberCube and Munich Re released a joint report on systemic cyber risks, drawing from a survey of 93 cybersecurity professionals to enhance the insurance industry’s understanding of severe cyber accumulation events. The study, the third in a series, highlights the potential scale of malware and cloud outages, effective mitigation measures, and emerging threats, informing CyberCube’s Portfolio Manager Version 6 and Munich Re’s risk models.
Malware Impact: Experts predict a severe malware event could infect 25% of global systems, with 15% fully compromised, similar to WannaCry/NotPetya.
Cloud Outages: Outages may last hours to days, with a one-day disruption costing ~1% of annual revenue.
Mitigation Efficacy: Patch management, network segmentation, and backups reduce malware risk by 50-80%.
Emerging Threats: IoT devices pose immediate risks; LLMs impact now, AGI in 5+ years.
Market Impact: Findings enhance CyberCube and Munich Re’s cyber risk modeling for a $16.3B market.
Next Steps: Another study is planned for 2026, with open participation for experts.
The report estimates that a severe malware event could affect 25% of global systems, though only 15% would face full compromise, ruling out scenarios where over 50% of systems are fully impacted. Events like WannaCry or NotPetya remain plausible. Effective mitigations—patch management, network segmentation, and robust backups—can reduce both the likelihood and financial impact of such attacks by 50-80%, offering critical resilience for organizations.
Experts anticipate cloud outages lasting hours to days, with outages beyond 72 hours rare but possible. Financial losses scale with duration, averaging 1% of annual revenue for a one-day outage of a critical cloud provider. Dependency varies by company size and sector, with smaller firms more reliant. Multi-region cloud architectures within a single provider are the most effective mitigation, while switching providers during outages is deemed impractical. Azure, AWS, and Google are rated as best prepared for outage recovery.
Industrial and Consumer IoT devices are the top near-term concern, followed by Large Language Models (LLMs), with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) posing risks in 5+ years. The report highlights the challenge of modeling tail-risk events due to limited historical data, using expert consensus to parameterize worst-case scenarios like systemic malware or multi-region cloud outages. These insights refine CyberCube’s and Munich Re’s risk models, addressing the $60B software supply chain attack cost projected for 2025.
The findings bolster CyberCube’s Portfolio Manager Version 6 and Munich Re’s internal models, enhancing credibility in a $16.3B cyber insurance market expected to double by 2030. “We aim to provide a more nuanced view of how systemic cyber events might unfold,” said Jon Laux, VP of Analytics at CyberCube. Stephan Brunner, Senior Cyber Actuary at Munich Re, emphasized improving “understanding of possible extreme malware and cloud events.” The report fosters industry dialogue, with a fourth study planned for 2026.
CyberCube is the leading provider of software-as-a-service cyber risk analytics to quantify cyber risk in financial terms. Driven by data and informed by insight, we have harnessed the power of artificial intelligence to supplement our multi-disciplinary team. Our clients rely on our solutions to make informed decisions about managing and transferring cyber risks. We unpack complex cyber threats into clear, actionable strategies, translating cyber risk into financial impact on businesses, markets, and society as a whole.
The CyberCube platform was established in 2015 within Symantec and now operates as a standalone company. Our models are built on an unparalleled ecosystem of data and validated by extensive model calibration, internally and externally. CyberCube is the leader in cyber risk quantification for the insurance industry, serving over 100 insurance institutions globally. The company’s investors include Forgepoint Capital, HSCM Bermuda and Morgan Stanley Tactical Value.
Munich Re is one of the world’s leading providers of reinsurance, primary insurance and insurance-related risk solutions. Munich Re is globally active and operates in all lines of the insurance business. Since it was founded in 1880, Munich Re has been known for its unrivalled risk-related expertise and its sound financial position. Munich Re leverages its strengths to promote its clients’ business interests and technological progress. Moreover, Munich Re develops covers for new risks such as rocket launches, renewable energies, cyber risks and artificial intelligence. In the 2024 financial year, Munich Re generated insurance revenue of €60.8bn and a net result of €5.7bn. The Munich Re Group employed about 44,000 people worldwide as at 31 December 2024.
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