Pavlos Pavlou Breaks Down the Future of Retail, Value & Consumer Intent

Consumers are buying differently. And brands can’t afford to guess why.

Pavlos Pavlou, MD - Saudi Arabia at NIQ, sheds light on the behavioral changes sweeping Saudi Arabia, from value-led decision-making to deliberate consumption and rising digital dependence. He breaks down how NIQ is capturing the Full View amid rapid modernization and why agility, real-time insight, and locally grounded leadership are now non-negotiable for growth.

You’ve spent years driving growth and transformation across diverse markets in the Middle East. How has that cross-market exposure shaped your leadership philosophy at NielsenIQ?

Working across the Middle East has shown me how important agility and cultural understanding are. Every market moves differently, with its own consumer habits, retail structures, and speed of change. In Saudi Arabia, for example, strong local production and rapid modernization under Vision 2030 mean constant adaptation. My approach is to empower local talent, stay close to what’s happening on the ground, and make sure our insights are relevant. Leading transformation here is about being responsive, inclusive, and connected to real people and their needs.

NIQ’s mission is to provide a complete view of consumer behavior. What does a “complete view” look like in markets that are still formalizing their data ecosystems?

NIQ’s Full View means understanding not only what people buy but why they buy it. Even in developing data ecosystems, we combine retail tracking with consumer insights to see the complete picture across products, channels, and habits. Our goal is to turn complex data into clear, actionable insights that help businesses respond quickly and confidently. It’s about bridging gaps and giving clients the clarity they need to make sound decisions as markets evolve.

NIQ’s Consumer Outlook 2026 Guide highlights a clear duality: consumers are spending more, yet more intentionally. How do you interpret this balance between optimism and caution in shaping brand strategies?

NIQ’s Consumer Outlook 2026 highlights a new mindset in Saudi Arabia. Consumers today are optimistic but mindful. In Saudi Arabia, while many feel financially stronger, they still look for value and relevance. This signals a shift toward value-conscious spending, where optimism is tempered by practicality. They are willing to spend when it makes sense. For brands, that means blending aspiration with practicality. Brands need to deliver tangible benefits, and innovation must align with what truly matters to people, such as health, convenience, and authenticity. The winning strategies are those that stay ambitious but grounded in reality.

Saudi Arabia’s consumer confidence now exceeds the global average by a wide margin. What structural or behavioral shifts do you believe are fueling this optimism?

Saudi Arabia’s optimism reflects structural reforms and evolving consumer habits. Promotions are frequent, e-commerce is evolving fast, and superlocalization strategies are becoming the norm. Gen Z is driving much of this change. They influence family purchases and have significant spending power, but they are also value-conscious. While they care about sustainability and experiences, affordability still guides many choices. Confidence in Saudi Arabia is strong, yet pragmatic. Brands that deliver both innovation and value will continue to gain trust.

You’ve said that “brands must rethink pack sizes, refine promotions, and embrace digital transformation.” Could you elaborate on how these adjustments are part of a broader business transformation?

These shifts reflect how consumer behavior is changing. More shoppers are choosing larger pack sizes and searching for better value. That means package size, pricing, and promotions need to evolve together. At the same time, digital adoption is rising, with more than half of consumers using apps or online stores to find deals. This is not just a tactical change; it is strategic. The companies that adapt their models around agility, data-driven decision-making, and consumer-focused innovation will be best positioned for long-term growth.

With 55% of Saudi consumers now using digital platforms to find deals, but 41% still preferring traditional retailers, how do you see the phygital space evolving? What are the most critical levers for brands navigating this hybrid reality?

Saudi Arabia’s retail landscape is becoming truly hybrid. People enjoy the ease of digital shopping but still value the trust and experience of visiting stores. Brands that succeed will connect both worlds seamlessly, offering consistent pricing, promotions, and availability across channels. Apps can personalize engagement and build loyalty, while physical stores provide credibility and human interaction. The future lies in creating one unified journey that meets consumers wherever they are.

Sustainability is quickly becoming a value driver, with 51% of consumers buying only what they’ll use. Is this a long-term shift or an economic response to short-term pressures like inflation and supply dynamics?

It is a lasting shift. While economic pressures played a role, consumers, especially younger ones, are now making more deliberate and responsible choices. Buying only what is needed reflects a broader mindset around waste reduction and conscious consumption. Digital tools make this easier by helping people plan and compare before purchasing. For brands, aligning with this intentional behavior means offering transparency, real value, and practical sustainability rather than unmet claims.

You’ve led teams through P&L expansion, capability-building, and market diversification. What’s your framework for building commercial resilience?

Resilience begins with staying relevant. That means anticipating client needs, investing in developing people, and building agility into every process. We strengthen teams with both technical expertise and advisory skills so they can respond to change confidently. Diversifying across categories and channels also helps balance risk. Above all, we focus on trust with clients, partners, and our own people. That is what sustains performance through change.

Finally, as consumer intelligence becomes more predictive and real-time, what excites you most about NIQ’s next chapter in Saudi Arabia?

What excites me most is the pace of transformation. With AI and new analytics tools, we can now provide faster and smarter insights that help clients act in real time. We continue digitizing our retail data and expanding e-commerce measurement to capture the Full View of how people shop. Combining that technology with local expertise allows us to support Saudi businesses as they grow and innovate in this dynamic market.