Triple Whale, the agent-powered intelligence platform trusted by over 50,000 ecommerce and retail brands, has released its 2025 Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) Breakdown Report. The analysis captures a record-breaking holiday season where brands generated $2.88 billion in revenue—representing 19.7% of all Shopify merchant sales—while leaning heavily on AI tools for real-time decision-making amid economic headwinds like inflation and escalating ad costs.
In a season defined by tighter budgets and cautious consumers, Triple Whale's platform saw unprecedented engagement as brands used its AI agents and conversational assistant Moby for everything from scaling efficient campaigns to forecasting repurchase likelihood. The report shows AI evolving from a novelty to a necessity, enabling operators to rebalance ad spend, personalize retention tactics, and protect margins in real time.
"This was our biggest BFCM ever, and it underscored just how essential Triple Whale has become for operators," said AJ Orbach, founder and CEO of Triple Whale. "Brands needed unprecedented efficiency this year, and they relied on Triple Whale and Moby as real-time strategic advisors, not just data tools. AI is no longer experimental, it's how brands protect margins and compete."
Inflationary pressures, tariff-driven price hikes, and eroding consumer confidence forced brands to spend more aggressively on ads without proportional returns. Meta's return on ad spend (ROAS) held steady at 2.26, but cost per mille (CPM) climbed 7.6% year-over-year to $22.26. Google fared worse, with ROAS dropping 21.09% to 3.62 and cost per acquisition (CPA) surging 34.18% to $26.31. These shifts highlighted the limits of the ad duopoly, which still commanded 90% of budgets but showed clear signs of strain.
Brands responded by reallocating toward platforms offering better efficiency and audience relevance. TikTok's ROAS rose 28.42% to 2.26, with CPMs 27.5% lower than 2024, while AppLovin's share of ad spend jumped 36.24%. Even modest pivots at scale unlocked meaningful gains, signaling a broader media mix evolution where flexibility trumps legacy reliance.
As acquisition costs ballooned, retention became the growth lifeline. Brands over $10 million in annual revenue sourced more than half their BFCM sales from repeat buyers, using AI to trigger timely email/SMS campaigns and personalized offers. Smaller operators (<$1M revenue) still prioritized new customers (two-thirds of sales), but top performers across sizes harnessed Triple Whale's tools to predict and nurture lifetime value, turning one-off holiday spikes into sustained revenue streams.
The BFCM window stretched further, with $1.77 billion in pre-weekend revenue from 16.6 million orders and $396.6 million in ad spend—65% of the total. Apparel dominated with $1.07 billion (3.1x ROAS, $88 AOV), driven by gifting and limited drops, while Health & Beauty added $680 million (2.1x ROAS, $65 AOV) via loyalty and replenishment buys. These categories thrived by blending value, creativity, and agile data strategies in a value-conscious market.
The 2025 BFCM Breakdown Report cements AI's role in ecommerce resilience, where brands that embraced agentic intelligence not only survived turbulence but emerged with stronger, more adaptive operations.
About Triple Whale
Triple Whale is the agent-powered intelligence platform built for faster, more confident decisions across your entire brand. With AI agents that sit atop a fully-managed data warehouse, the Triple Pixel's proprietary identity resolution technology, and tools for acquisition, conversion, retention, and operations, Triple Whale turns complex data into clear, actionable guidance for profitable growth – including a 42% average increase in new customer revenue within 90 days.
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